Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Prediction and Data

The results of the Presidential election appear to have been finalized,with Obama picking up one final electoral vote from the Omaha, Nebraska, congressional district along with North Carolina, while McCain took Missouri. That makes the final (but still provisional) tally at 365 for Obama and 173 for McCain. I've added those points, along with the last few days of polls, to the graph I posted earlier.

I also included a dashed line to help compare that value to the statistical fluctuations in the polls over the last several weeks of the campaign. Obama somewhat overperformed, but not by much compared to the 'noise' you can see in the data. After all, only a fraction of a percent in the popular vote in two states (Indiana with 11 electoral votes and North Carolina with 15) -- well within the margin of error for the predictions -- was responsible for all of the 16 point gain over the prediction at By the way, visit his site and compare the prediction map with the actual map. Pretty stunning.

In addition, in case you need to decompress, I bring you a somewhat bogus TV News Report from "The Onion":

Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are

I found it hysterical. With a hint of truth. Making it even more hysterical.

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